Alm 2010

Most markets were rather unchanged on thursday. In Japan Nikkei 225 showed a gain of 2.6 % which stands out from the rest of the picture. It was rather much a day off. I am still puzzled about what really is going on. Am kind of sure about that most participants have to find new trading/business models and that will take time. Until they are ready will the old school of participants rule. My feeling is that many in that group has been rather cautious for quite a while so with underlying profits and to them relative values at attractive levels maybe they will consider buying the market. For the ones that consider the trend to be their best friend many have decided to go short the market lately. That could sparkle a rally that I think still is very possible. There are two things that makes me nervous and both of them have to do with the theories used for measuring risk. We do not have random walk, constant interest rates and volatility levels. Writing calls and puts is selling insurance and I hope we don not find to much off that in balance sheets. Darwin rules so good becomes better and bad disappears.

Market data: (change compared to 22 August)

10 year treasury yield 4.62 % (-0.00)

Swedish OMX (+0.5 %)

FTSE (+0 %)

DOW (1.1 %)

NASDAQ (-0.4 %)

NIKKEI 225 (+2.6 %)

SHANGHAI SSE COMP. (+1 %)

VIX (unc.)