Alm 2010

Stockmarkets that I follow are at +/- 1% for the week so far. Very unchanged. Bond yields are 10 to 15 points lower and volatility (VIX) is up 20%. Actually the volatility is the big mover. Maybe we see some buying of longterm volatility that has been short OTC. Tomorrow we will listen to FED and try to convince ourselves that we are right about the market.

Since last week (see Sunday report 26 august) I have continued the work on my Internet infrastructure for corporate and private life. I am trying to find the right level of integrity.

So far this week is showing rather small changes. On a daily basis we see bigger movements, but today we had a rather uneventful day. Housing data yesterday was very week but who thought it would be something else? China is continuing to make new all time highs, HongKong is getting fresh Chinese money to stay strong, volatility is rather high and will probably stay high, yields on quality coming down and rates on junk hard to find. A flight to quality and Tech and only for investors with strong nerves. As I mentioned last week I think the market will be tested during the second half of september. I don´t think the move by FED regarding rates is most important rather how they will deal with the extra liquitity they provided about 10 days ago. That will be a good test of this market. We will see a lot of window dressing and portfolio shifting and if the market takes us through september without any great catastrophes Q4 looks good. I think though that the market need some more proof of problems before we are heading north again.

I am only testing frontend editing.

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Traders all over the world are trying to figure out where to invest after the rate cuts by FED last week. Where should you put your money at play? I think the move yesterday by FED and the problems on the credit markets lately show us that a major shift on the markets is on its way. Maybe we are leaving the exceptional circumstances of low inflation/high growth behind us. If that is the case I believe that we enter a market of high growth and normal inflation. The "engine" will this time not be the American consumer. Lets see what happens and lets look for less safe havens. Maybe its time too look for U.S. exporters. US Dollar will stay weak and the engine will be fueled by Chinese consumers. Microsoft, Apple, E-Trade, Google, Yahoo, Dell ... and you know that kind of consumer/small business friendly companies that already act without borders. There are many names and a lot of needs to be satisfied. I hope I am right being positive and I hope the shift taking place right now will be smooth enough. In Swedish I hope that we can illustrate this shift of economic climate with the word "pyspunka". If that is right than we have several years of giving new air to new ballons and September 2007 represented a very good buying opportunity. Lets see - no one knows.